← Store Championship - Distorted Reflections
Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Store Championship - Distorted Reflections
decks
2
(9.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
5-5-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.3%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
47.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1379
· median 1379
· range 1339–1420
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1134
Q1 1258
Q3 1425
1607
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.1% | -2.7 |
| Fire Suited | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.6% | +14.1 |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diao Chan | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.8% | -4.9 |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
